The 5 Blueprints: Configuration C Shortlist

Our recommended path forward — 5 blueprints addressing violence reduction, reconstruction, sustainability, and regional legitimacy.

Configuration C Overview

Blueprint	Title	Budget	Timeline	Success %	Role
4-01	Cherizier Bilateral Deal	$604K	4 months	85%	Proof of Concept
4-06	6-Gang Capstone Deal	$6.5M	13 months	80%	Citywide Stabilization
4-07	HNP Gang Integration	$63M	28 months	72%	Sustainable Security
4-08	US Strategic Reconstruction	$500M	28 months	90%	Economic Transformation
4-10	CARICOM Legitimacy	$20M	18 months	88%	Regional Leadership
TOTAL (Configuration C)		$590M	28 months	60-70%	Comprehensive Peace

Deferred Blueprint

Blueprint 4-11: Government Ownership Transition ($200M, 48 months, 50% success) → Post-stabilization program (2027-2030). Not included in immediate peace plan due to extended timeline and higher uncertainty.

Risk-Adjusted Implementation Timeline

Q4 2025 (October - December)

• Blueprint 4-01 Launch (Cherizier Bilateral)

- Budget: $604K

- Rationale: Front-load while GSF momentum high, low-cost insurance

↓ Decision Gate: GSF + 4-01 Assessment ↓

Q2 2026 (April - June)

• Blueprint 4-06 Launch (6-Gang Capstone) - $6.5M

• Blueprint 4-07 Launch (HNP Integration) - $63M

• Blueprint 4-10 Launch (CARICOM Legitimacy) - $20M

- Contingent on: GSF progress OR Blueprint 4-01 success

↓ Decision Gate: Compound Success Assessment ↓

Q4 2026+ (October onwards)

• Blueprint 4-08 Launch (US Reconstruction) - $500M

- Contingent on: GSF + early blueprints prove concept

- Rationale: Only commit large sums after de-risking

↓

2027: Stabilization Complete

• All 5 blueprints operational

• GSF mandate renewal or transition decision

↓ Optional ↓

2027-2030: Post-Stabilization (If 2027 assessment positive)

• Blueprint 4-11 Launch (Government Ownership)

- Conditional on Configuration C success

Why Configuration C?

Addresses All Critical Dimensions

• Violence Reduction: Blueprint 4-06 (6-gang deals cover 100% of Port-au-Prince)
• HNP Sustainability: Blueprint 4-07 (gang integration prevents checkpoint handover collapse)
• Economic Transformation: Blueprint 4-08 (15,000 jobs, infrastructure rebuilding)
• Regional Legitimacy: Blueprint 4-10 (CARICOM oversight, Jamaica/Trinidad pilots)
• Payment Credibility: Blueprint 4-01 (Cherizier proof-of-concept, +0.15 boost to subsequent deals)

Balances Ambition with Realism

$590M investment is substantial (not minimal $70M Core-only option) but achievable (not overambitious $790M 7-year commitment with Blueprint 4-11).

28-month timeline is realistic for Congressional appropriations, World Bank Board votes, 6-gang coordination, and HNP reform — does not require 7-year commitment.

Maximizes Success Probability

60-70% compound success probability is viable (higher than 26% naïve compound of individual probabilities) while remaining realistic (lower than 95% "only terminal failures matter" optimistic scenario).

GSF-adjusted probabilities account for: military pressure creating negotiation leverage (4-01: 77% → 85%), security floor for operations (4-06: 75% → 80%, 4-07: 65% → 72%), donor mobilization psychology (4-08: 87% → 90%), and CARICOM engagement momentum (4-10: 80% → 88%).

Risk-Adjusted Budget Sequencing

Phase	Budget	Risk Exposure	Contingency
Q4 2025	$604K (4-01)	LOW	If GSF collapses immediately, only $604K exposed
Q2 2026	$89.5M (4-06/07/10)	MEDIUM	If GSF fails Q1 2026, pause deployment
Q4 2026+	$500M (4-08)	LOW	If GSF + blueprints fail, $500M never deployed

This minimizes downside risk (maximum $604K loss if GSF fails immediately, not $590M) while maximizing upside optionality (can deploy full $590M if early phases succeed).

Alternative Configurations

Configuration A: Core ($70M)

Blueprints: 4-01 + 4-06 + 4-07 only

Success probability: 50-60%

Why not recommended: No economic transformation (Blueprint 4-08), no regional legitimacy (Blueprint 4-10). Achieves violence reduction but Haiti remains fragile economically. Limited international replicability.

Configuration B: Core + Reconstruction ($570M)

Blueprints: 4-01 + 4-06 + 4-07 + 4-08 (no CARICOM)

Success probability: 55-65%

Why not recommended: Misses Blueprint 4-10 CARICOM ($20M), which delivers highest scorecard value (100.0) due to cost-effectiveness ($50M per credibility point vs. $1,250M for 4-08) and insulates against US political risk.

Configuration C: RECOMMENDED ($590M)

Blueprints: 4-01 + 4-06 + 4-07 + 4-08 + 4-10

Success probability: 60-70%

Why recommended: Comprehensive coverage of all critical dimensions, realistic timeline (28 months), viable success probability, risk-adjusted sequencing.

Configuration D: Maximum ($790M)

Blueprints: 4-01 + 4-06 + 4-07 + 4-08 + 4-10 + 4-11

Success probability: 45-50%

Why not recommended: Blueprint 4-11 (2026-2030, 48 months) extends beyond immediate peace plan scope. Success probability DROPS because long-term uncertainties (political instability, donor fatigue, climate shocks) reduce compound probability. Better to separate stabilization (2025-2027) from governance transition (2027-2030).