Blueprint 4-06

80%

Success Probability

6-Gang Capstone Deal

Citywide Port-au-Prince Stabilization — Coordinating all 6 major gang federations (Viv Ansanm + G9 + independents) for comprehensive violence reduction.

At a Glance

Budget

$6.5 Million

• $5M escrow payments (6 gang leaders)
• $1.2M job creation (2,500 jobs)
• $300K verification (BINUH + elder monitors)

Timeline

13 months

16-week pilot + 12-week state transition + 6-month extension

72 implementation turns documented

Key Actors

• Cherizier (Viv Ansanm, 46.67% payment)
• Wilson Joseph (400 Mawozo, 31.67%)
• Destina, Izo, Krisla, Vitelhomme (remaining 21.66%)
• World Bank (escrow + verification)
• BINUH (95 monitors deployed)

Coverage

300,000 residents of Port-au-Prince
100% citywide coverage (6 territories)
Route 1 + port + 5 additional corridors

Problem It Solves

The Bilateral Fragility Problem: Blueprint 4-01 (Cherizier bilateral deal) covers only Cité Soleil (67,800 residents). Rival gangs control 80% of Port-au-Prince — if only Viv Ansanm complies, rival gangs can sabotage corridors or escalate violence in non-Viv Ansanm territories.

Blueprint 4-06 achieves citywide coordination by bringing ALL 6 major gang leaders to the negotiating table simultaneously:

• Viv Ansanm federation (Cherizier + Krisla): Cité Soleil, Bas Delmas
• G9 federation (Destina + Izo): Martissant, Fontamara
• 400 Mawozo (Wilson Joseph): Croix-des-Bouquets, Port-au-Prince outskirts
• Grand Ravine (Vitelhomme): Western Port-au-Prince

Result: 100% Port-au-Prince coverage, no safe havens for rival gang sabotage.

How It Works

7 Implementation Phases (72 Turns)

Phase 1: Cherizier Convenes 6-Gang Summit (Turns 1-10)

Cherizier invites 5 rival leaders citing "$250K received" (Blueprint 4-01 proof). Credibility starts 0.70 (boosted from 0.55 baseline by 4-01 success).

Phase 2: World Bank Escrow Authorization (Turns 11-28)

World Bank Board approves $6.5M capstone escrow. Church + elder attestation (45 elders across 3 territories). First $1.25M tranche deposited. Credibility jumps to 1.00 — "escrow is REAL."

Phase 3: Capstone SLA Signing (Turns 29-38)

All 6 leaders sign Service Level Agreement: <35 incidents citywide per 4-week review (<6 per gang threshold), BINUH + elder verification (140 monitors), payment allocation formula.

Phase 4: 16-Week Pilot Monitoring (Turns 39-48)

Weeks 7-22 verification. Week 10 threshold challenge (42 incidents, 20% above threshold) → Church mediates threshold adjustment for ramp-up complexity. First payment $1.75M released Week 10.

Phase 5: Jobs Deployment (Turns 49-55)

2,500 jobs deployed across all 6 territories (construction, services, sanitation). Community development accounts (elder oversight, NOT gang leader personal accounts).

Phase 6: State Transition to HNP (Turns 56-68)

12-week transition: HNP assumes 90% checkpoint authority (gang leaders shift to "liaison only" role). Month 12 verification: 27 incidents (22% below threshold), HNP transition successful.

Phase 7: Success Declaration + Blueprint 4-08 Authorization (Turns 69-72)

International community declares "6-gang coordination UNPRECEDENTED SUCCESS." Blueprint 4-08 (US $500M reconstruction) AUTHORIZED based on capstone success verification.

Payment Allocation Formula

Payments distributed based on territory size, violence reduction contribution, and coordination role:

• Cherizier (Viv Ansanm): 46.67% ($2.33M) — coordinator + largest territory
• Wilson Joseph (400 Mawozo): 31.67% ($1.58M) — second largest + Croix-des-Bouquets
• Destina (Ti Lapli): 8.33% ($416K) — G9 federation lead
• Izo (Johnson Andre): 6.67% ($333K) — Fontamara territory
• Krisla (G9 deputy): 3.33% ($166K) — Bas Delmas liaison
• Vitelhomme (Grand Ravine): 3.33% ($166K) — Western PaP

Why It Will Succeed (80% Probability)

Success Factors

✓
Blueprint 4-01 credibility boost: Cherizier's $250K payment proof provides +0.15 baseline increase (0.55 → 0.70 starting credibility for capstone)
✓
GSF military pressure: Gang Suppression Force (5,550 personnel) creates negotiation leverage — "coordinate or face military neutralization"
✓
Payment scale sufficient: $5M total validates "economic alternatives are real" for all 6 leaders (average $833K per leader)
✓
140 monitors deployed: 95 BINUH + 45 community elders = comprehensive verification system prevents manipulation
✓
Incident attribution protocol: Defensive actions NOT counted against gangs (addresses Wilson Joseph Turn 31 concern)

Why Higher Than Multi-Gang Coordination Baseline (45%)

Pass 3 topology analysis showed multi-gang negotiations have 45% success rate (vs. 77% bilateral deals). Blueprint 4-06 exceeds this baseline because:

• Sequential not simultaneous: Cherizier convenes (not international mediators), peer credibility higher
• Payment proof precedent: Blueprint 4-01 demonstrated "World Bank PAID," reduces skepticism
• Threshold flexibility: Week 10 adjustment (42 incidents tolerated) prevents early collapse
• GSF timing: Q2 2026 launch coincides with GSF peak operational capacity

Key Risks & Mitigation

RISK: 6-gang coordination collapse (any leader withdraws during pilot)

Mitigation: Staged payment releases ($1.75M Week 10, $1.25M Week 14, $1.25M Week 18, $2.25M Week 22) — if leader withdraws early, forfeits remaining tranches. Economic incentive to sustain compliance.

Probability: 20% (highest risk in Week 7-10 ramp-up period)

RISK: Cherizier succession (if Cherizier killed/arrested, Viv Ansanm coordination collapses)

Mitigation: Blueprint 4-06B succession protocol (Turns 69-72) — Krisla (Viv Ansanm deputy) pre-authorized as successor. Payment continuity guaranteed if succession orderly.

Probability: 8% (Cherizier has 95% survival probability based on 2024 precedent)

RISK: HNP checkpoint handover collapse (corruption undermines state transition Phase 6)

Mitigation: Blueprint 4-07 (HNP Gang Integration) runs PARALLEL to Phase 6 — gang members integrate into HNP units, reduces corruption risk. Elder accountability protocol (Turn 61-66 precedent) addresses HNP extortion incidents.

Probability: 15% without Blueprint 4-07 → 5% with 4-07 integration

What Happens If This Succeeds

Citywide Stabilization: Violence incidents drop from 35/month baseline to 27.5/month average (22% reduction) across all Port-au-Prince territories. 300,000 residents gain access to humanitarian corridors.

Blueprint 4-08 Authorization: US Congressional Black Caucus cites "6-gang coordination success" as evidence for $100M Haiti reconstruction appropriation. World Bank authorizes $250M reconstruction tranche (conditional on capstone Month 12 verification).

State Authority Restored: HNP assumes 90% checkpoint control (up from 10% pre-capstone). Gang leaders shift to "liaison only" role (conflict de-escalation, not primary security operators).

International Model: BINUH declares capstone "unprecedented success" — first multi-gang coordination in conflict zone globally. Jamaica and Trinidad request CARICOM technical assistance for potential replication (Blueprint 4-10 pilots).

Full Documentation

Total documentation: ~30,000 words across skeleton + elaboration + succession protocol