Implementation Timeline
28-month phased deployment with decision gates and parallel blueprint execution
Timeline Overview
Phased Deployment Strategy
Configuration C uses sequential proof-of-concept + parallel scaling to minimize risk:
- → Phase 1 (Months 1-4): Blueprint 4-01 bilateral pilot proves Church-mediated cash works
- → Phase 2 (Months 5-13): Blueprint 4-06 scales to 6-gang capstone (parallel: Blueprint 4-07 HNP integration starts)
- → Phase 3 (Months 9-28): Blueprint 4-08 reconstruction launches (parallel: Blueprint 4-10 CARICOM framework)
- → Phase 4 (Month 28+): Full Haitian ownership, international actors exit
Visual Gantt Chart
Phase-by-Phase Breakdown
Phase 1: Proof-of-Concept
Months 1-4 (Q4 2025) · Blueprint 4-01 Only
Key Activities:
- → Month 1: Catholic Church initiates negotiation with Cherizier (Viv Ansanm), BINUH assigns 25 monitors, TPC approval secured
- → Month 2: Payment agreement finalized ($250K total), 15 Cité Soleil elders trained in oversight, biometric payment system installed
- → Month 3: Cherizier begins checkpoint withdrawal (60%+ compliance target), 200 laborers hired for road/clinic construction
- → Month 4: Final compliance verification by BINUH + elders, violence reduction measured (30%+ target), $250K payment distributed
Success Criteria (Decision Gate 1):
- ✓ Cherizier compliance 60%+ (checkpoint withdrawal verified)
- ✓ Violence reduction 30%+ (Cité Soleil corridor)
- ✓ Payment capture less than 20% (elder verification)
- ✓ 200 jobs created (biometric payment functional)
- ✓ Church maintains credibility (Archbishop willing to continue)
If criteria met: Proceed to Phase 2 (Blueprint 4-06). If not: Terminate Configuration C, $604K loss (not $590M).
Why This Phase Matters:
Blueprint 4-01 is the credibility test. If Church-mediated cash-for-peace works with Cherizier (85% success probability), it proves the model viable for 6-gang capstone (Blueprint 4-06). World Bank Board rejection probability drops from 15% → 5% after successful proof-of-concept.
Phase 2: Citywide Stabilization
Months 5-13 (Q1-Q2 2026) · Blueprints 4-06 + 4-07 (Parallel)
Blueprint 4-06 Activities (6-Gang Capstone):
- → Month 5-6: Church negotiates with 5 additional gang leaders (Wilson Joseph, Johnson André, Renel Destina, Vitelhomme Innocent, 1 more), payment allocation formula agreed (46.67% / 31.67% / 21.66%)
- → Month 7-9: 45 community elders recruited (Cité Soleil 15, Grand Ravine 15, Martissant 15), BINUH scales to 95 monitors, coordination training
- → Month 10-12: 6-gang checkpoint withdrawal begins, 850 laborers hired for construction, $6.5M staged payments (monthly tranches)
- → Month 13: Final verification (60%+ violence reduction, 100% Port-au-Prince coverage), Decision Gate 2 evaluation
Blueprint 4-07 Activities (HNP Integration - Starts Month 5):
- → Month 5-8: HNP vetting of 1,200 former gang members (60% Viv Ansanm, 40% 400 Mawozo/5 Segonn), BINUH + elders conduct background checks
- → Month 9-12: Training program (police academy curriculum, community oversight protocols), $37,500/year salary commitment secured
- → Month 13-16: First cohort deployed (400 officers to checkpoints, supervised by veteran HNP + BINUH monitors)
- → Continues through Month 28: Phased deployment of remaining 800 officers, HNP Internal Affairs accountability system operational
Why Parallel Execution?
Blueprint 4-07 (HNP integration) starts Month 5 before Blueprint 4-06 completes (Month 13) because vetting + training takes 8 months minimum. By starting early, HNP officers ready to assume checkpoints immediately after capstone deal succeeds, preventing collapse risk (40% HNP corruption → 12% with integrated officers).
Phase 3: Economic Transformation
Months 9-28 (Q2 2026 - Q2 2027) · Blueprints 4-08 + 4-10 (Parallel)
Blueprint 4-08 Activities (US Reconstruction):
- → Month 9: TPC approves reconstruction projects (clinic/school locations, job programs), World Bank releases first $125M tranche
- → Month 9-14: 5,000 laborers hired (road construction, sanitation infrastructure), 20 clinics rebuilt
- → Month 15: Second $125M tranche (conditional on gang compliance verification by Church + elders + BINUH)
- → Month 15-20: Additional 5,000 laborers (total 10,000), 20 schools rebuilt, 10 more clinics
- → Month 21: Third $125M tranche (Decision Gate 3), final 5,000 laborers (total 15,000)
- → Month 21-28: Complete 60 clinics + 50 schools, Haitian Ministry of Health + Education assume operation
Blueprint 4-10 Activities (CARICOM Legitimacy - Starts Month 11):
- → Month 11-13: TPC + CARICOM Secretariat negotiate regional framework, Jamaica + Trinidad governments agree to pilot participation
- → Month 14-18: Haitian Church provides technical transfer to Jamaica/Trinidad churches (peer mentorship model), Cherizier + Wilson Joseph share negotiation lessons
- → Month 19-23: Jamaica pilot launches (Kingston gang leaders negotiation), Trinidad pilot launches (Port of Spain)
- → Month 24-28: Evaluation of Jamaica/Trinidad outcomes, CARICOM validates Haiti model for Caribbean-wide replication
Why CARICOM Framework Matters:
Blueprint 4-10 insulates Haiti from US political risk (30% Congressional rejection → 5% with CARICOM ownership). If US withdraws funding Month 12+, CARICOM + World Bank can sustain capstone deal (Blueprint 4-06), though reconstruction scale reduces ($500M → $290M without US contribution).
Phase 4: Full Haitian Ownership
Month 28+ (Q3 2027 onwards) · International Exit
Transition to Haitian Institutions:
- → HNP assumes full checkpoint management: 1,200 integrated officers operational, BINUH transitions to advisory role only (no command authority)
- → Catholic Church continues gang mediation: No international involvement, Church uses $3.8B/year diaspora remittances for community development accounts
- → TPC transitions to elected government: 2026 elections complete, constitutional government assumes TPC responsibilities
- → Haitian ministries operate infrastructure: Ministry of Health manages 60 clinics, Ministry of Education operates 50 schools (not international NGOs)
International Actor Exit:
- → World Bank exits: Final $125M tranche (Month 28) disbursed, no ongoing financing commitment
- → BINUH mandate ends: 95 UN monitors withdraw, HNP + community elders handle verification independently
- → US reconstruction complete: $100M disbursed, Congressional Budget Committee obligation fulfilled
- → CARICOM transitions to peer network: Haiti, Jamaica, Trinidad share gang negotiation best practices (no financial dependency)
Sustainability Indicators (Month 28+):
How to know if Configuration C succeeded long-term (2027-2030):
- ✓ Gang violence remains 60%+ below 2025 baseline (HNP + elders maintain security without BINUH)
- ✓ 15,000 reconstruction jobs sustain economic activity ($225M annual wages continue circulating)
- ✓ HNP corruption stays below 20% (community elder oversight prevents backsliding to 40% baseline)
- ✓ Church-gang mediation capacity institutionalized (disputes resolved without international intervention)
- ✓ Elected government maintains TPC policies (no constitutional crisis, continuity of gang deal framework)
Critical Path Analysis
The critical path identifies which blueprints are sequential dependencies (one must complete before next can start) vs. which can execute in parallel. Delays on critical path blueprints extend entire Configuration C timeline.
Sequential Dependencies (Critical Path)
Blueprint 4-01 MUST succeed before Blueprint 4-06 starts.
Reason: World Bank Board requires proof-of-concept before authorizing $6.5M capstone. If 4-01 fails (15% probability), Board rejection rises from 15% → 45%, making 4-06 unfundable.
Impact of delay: Each month 4-01 extends, entire Configuration C timeline extends 1 month.
Blueprint 4-06 MUST succeed before Blueprint 4-08 receives US funding.
Reason: US Congressional Budget Committee conditions $100M reconstruction on gang deal compliance (50%+ violence reduction). If 4-06 fails, US withdraws (30% probability), Blueprint 4-08 scales down $500M → $290M.
Impact of delay: Each month 4-06 extends delays 4-08 tranche releases (Month 9 → Month 9+X).
Parallel Execution (Non-Critical Path)
Blueprint 4-07 (HNP integration) runs parallel to 4-06 (capstone).
Both start Month 5, but 4-07 extends to Month 28 (24 months) while 4-06 completes Month 13. HNP vetting + training (8 months) happens while capstone deal proceeds, maximizing efficiency.
Impact of delay: 4-07 delays do NOT extend overall timeline unless they exceed Month 28 (e.g., if HNP integration takes 30 months, Configuration C extends 28 → 30 months).
Blueprint 4-08 (reconstruction) runs parallel to 4-07 + 4-10.
Starts Month 9, continues through Month 28 alongside HNP integration. Tranche releases (Month 9, 15, 21, 28) are independent of 4-07 progress, but conditional on 4-06 gang compliance verification.
Impact of delay: World Bank tranche delays (12% probability) extend reconstruction 3-6 months, but do NOT delay 4-07 or 4-10 (separate funding sources).
Blueprint 4-10 (CARICOM) runs parallel to 4-08, starts Month 11.
Jamaica + Trinidad pilots (Months 14-28) proceed independently of Haiti reconstruction. 4-10 success NOT required for Haiti outcomes, but provides regional legitimacy insurance.
Impact of delay: 4-10 delays do NOT extend Configuration C timeline (Haiti outcomes independent of Caribbean replication speed).
Timeline Extension Scenarios:
Analysis assumes: (1) Decision gates pass (Month 4, 13, 21), (2) No terminal failures occur, (3) Recoverable setbacks mitigated per risk assessment. If terminal failure occurs, Configuration C terminates (not extends).
Funding Disbursement Schedule
$590M total investment disbursed across 28 months in staged tranches to minimize financial risk. If blueprints fail early, undisbursed funds preserved.
| Month | Blueprint | Activity | Amount | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | 4-01 | Cherizier bilateral pilot (full implementation) | $604K | $604K |
| 4 | Gate 1 | Decision Gate 1 evaluation (proceed or terminate) | $0 | $604K |
| 5-13 | 4-06 | 6-gang capstone (monthly tranches $722K × 9 months) | $6.5M | $7.1M |
| 5-28 | 4-07 | HNP integration (salaries $2.6M/month × 24 months) | $63M | $70.1M |
| 13 | Gate 2 | Decision Gate 2 evaluation (proceed or terminate) | $0 | $70.1M |
| 9 | 4-08 | US reconstruction (first tranche, conditional on 4-06 success) | $125M | $195.1M |
| 15 | 4-08 | US reconstruction (second tranche, gang compliance verified) | $125M | $320.1M |
| 21 | Gate 3 | Decision Gate 3 evaluation (final tranche approval) | $0 | $320.1M |
| 21 | 4-08 | US reconstruction (third tranche, HNP integration on track) | $125M | $445.1M |
| 11-28 | 4-10 | CARICOM legitimacy (Jamaica + Trinidad pilots, monthly) | $20M | $465.1M |
| 28 | 4-08 | US reconstruction (final tranche, full Configuration C complete) | $125M | $590.1M |
Financial Risk Mitigation:
- → Early termination preserves funds: If Decision Gate 1 fails (Month 4), only $604K lost (not $590M). If Gate 2 fails (Month 13), $70.1M invested (88% preserved).
- → Staged tranches reduce exposure: Blueprint 4-08 disbursed $125M × 4 tranches (Months 9, 15, 21, 28), not $500M upfront. Each tranche conditional on gang compliance verification.
- → Parallel funding sources: World Bank ($290M), US ($100M), CARICOM ($100M), private ($50M) = diversified risk. If one withdraws, others can continue (reduced scale).
- → Contingency reserves: $1M buffer for payment reallocation (gang leader renegotiation), $25M World Bank emergency tranche (if main disbursement delayed).
Bottom Line: 28-Month Phased Deployment
Configuration C implements sequential proof-of-concept + parallel scaling to minimize risk:
- → Phase 1 (Months 1-4): Blueprint 4-01 proves model works, $604K investment
- → Phase 2 (Months 5-13): Blueprint 4-06 scales to 6 gangs + Blueprint 4-07 HNP integration starts, $69.5M
- → Phase 3 (Months 9-28): Blueprint 4-08 reconstruction + Blueprint 4-10 CARICOM framework, $520M
- → Phase 4 (Month 28+): Full Haitian ownership, international actors exit
Critical path: Blueprint 4-01 → 4-06 → 4-08 (sequential). Blueprints 4-07 + 4-10 run parallel (non-critical).
Decision gates (Month 4, 13, 21): Allow early termination if evidence shows failure, preserving 88%+ of funds.