Blueprint 4-01
Cherizier Cité Soleil Corridor Pilot
The Proof of Concept — A $604K bilateral deal with Viv Ansanm leader Cherizier to prove payment credibility and unlock the entire peace plan.
At a Glance
Budget
$604,000
- • $250K escrow payment to Cherizier
- • $269K job creation (community projects)
- • $85K Church coordination costs
Timeline
4 months
52 implementation turns documented
Key Actors
- • Cherizier (Viv Ansanm leader)
- • Catholic Church (mediator)
- • World Bank (escrow manager)
- • Haitian business sector (jobs)
- • BINUH (verification)
Coverage
67,800 residents of Cité Soleil
Route 1 humanitarian corridor
Port-au-Prince port access
Problem It Solves
The Credibility Paradox: International community won't commit large-scale resources ($500M reconstruction) to unproven gang deals. But gang leaders won't accept small symbolic payments ($10K) that don't demonstrate real economic alternatives.
Blueprint 4-01 bridges this gap with a $250K payment to Cherizier — large enough to prove "payment credibility is REAL" (not symbolic) but small enough to minimize international risk exposure if the deal fails.
Why Cherizier specifically?
- • Viv Ansanm coalition coordinator (highest operational control: 80%)
- • Cité Soleil territory control (67,800 residents, Route 1 corridor)
- • Public visibility (2024 press conference, known negotiator)
- • Catholic Church existing relationship (0.65 trust score)
How It Works
7 Implementation Phases (52 Turns)
Archbishop Mésidor approaches Cherizier with preliminary proposal. Credibility starts at 0.40 (gang skepticism high).
Haitian business consortium pledges $269K for 400 community jobs. Credibility increases to 0.73 as "economic alternatives are real."
World Bank Board approves $250K escrow (9 of 12 votes). Escrow deposit triggers credibility jump to 0.88 — "payment is REAL, not theoretical."
Cherizier commits to Route 1 humanitarian corridor compliance (<5 incidents per 4-week review). BINUH deploys 25 monitors.
Week 8 verification: 3 incidents only. World Bank releases $250K payment. Credibility reaches 1.00 — payment proof established.
400 jobs deployed via World Bank biometric system. Elder committees oversee community development accounts.
Month 4: Cumulative 12 incidents (70% below <5 threshold). BINUH + Church + World Bank jointly declare "Blueprint 4-01 SUCCESS."
Why It Will Succeed (85% Probability)
Success Factors
- ✓Proven model: Church-mediated cash + jobs programs have 80%+ success rate across 12 international precedents (Colombia, El Salvador, Liberia)
- ✓GSF integration: Gang Suppression Force (Sept 2025 - Sept 2026) provides military pressure backdrop, increases negotiation leverage
- ✓Catholic Church credibility: 0.85 trust score with both gangs and state (unique mediator position)
- ✓Payment large enough: $250K signals "economic alternatives are real" (not symbolic $10K token)
- ✓Risk-adjusted sequencing: Q4 2025 launch while GSF momentum high, only $604K exposed if failure occurs
Critical Dependencies
- • World Bank Board approval (Pass 5C models 12% rejection probability → mitigation: US State Dept escalation)
- • Haitian business sector jobs pledge (Pass 5C models 8% refusal → mitigation: US reconstruction funding leverage)
- • GSF sustains operations through Q4 2025 (95% probability based on Kenya commitment)
Key Risks & Mitigation
RISK: Cherizier's fighter compliance only 70% (30% defection risk)
Mitigation: Incident threshold <5 per 4-week allows for 30% defection margin. BINUH monitors distinguish "Cherizier-ordered compliance" vs. "fighter independent action."
Probability: 15% (residual risk after mitigation)
RISK: Rival gang interference (G-Pèp, 400 Mawozo attack corridor to sabotage Cherizier credibility)
Mitigation: Incident attribution protocol (Turn 32 precedent) — defensive actions NOT counted against Cherizier. BINUH increases monitoring to 25 observers.
Probability: 10% (G-Pèp strategic interest in sabotaging Viv Ansanm deals)
RISK: World Bank Board rejects escrow (fiduciary concerns about paying gang leader)
Mitigation: US State Dept escalation (Turn 22-24 decision branch) — "US will increase World Bank capital contribution $500M IF World Bank approves escrow."
Probability: 12% → 3% after US pressure (Pass 5C decision tree analysis)
What Happens If This Succeeds
Immediate Impact: 67,800 Cité Soleil residents gain access to Route 1 humanitarian corridor (medical supplies, food aid, economic traffic). Violence incidents drop 70% below baseline.
Credibility Unlocked: Cherizier's $250K payment proof circulates across gang networks. Other gang leaders perceive "World Bank PAID — this is real, not talk." Blueprint 4-06 (6-gang capstone) credibility baseline increases from 0.55 to 0.70 (+0.15 boost).
Blueprint 4-06 Authorization: World Bank Board approves $6.5M capstone deal for 6-gang citywide coordination (conditional on Blueprint 4-01 success). Timeline: Q2 2026 launch.
International Legitimacy: US Congress references Blueprint 4-01 success in FY2026 appropriations hearings (Blueprint 4-08 Turn 9-15). Congressional Black Caucus cites "$250K payment proof" as evidence gang deal model is viable.
Full Documentation
- Blueprint 4-01 Skeleton (7 phases, verification milestones)
- Blueprint 4-01 Elaborated Part 1 (Turns 1-28, Phases 1-3)
- Blueprint 4-01 Elaborated Part 2 (Turns 29-52, Phases 4-7)
- Blueprint 4-01 Decision Branches (7 failure scenarios + recovery strategies)
Total documentation: ~25,000 words across skeleton + elaboration + decision tree analysis