Blueprint 4-10

88%

Success Probability

CARICOM Regional Legitimacy Mechanism

Caribbean Leadership — Transforming Haiti peace plan from "US unilateral initiative" to "Caribbean regional model" with Jamaica and Trinidad pilots for international replication.

At a Glance

Budget

$20 Million

• $8M CARICOM secretariat coordination
• $7M Jamaica pilot (Kingston gang deals)
• $5M Trinidad pilot (Port of Spain gangs)

Timeline

18 months

Parallel to Blueprint 4-08 (reconstruction phase)

Q2 2026 - Q4 2027

Key Actors

• CARICOM Secretariat (Guyana leadership)
• Jamaica government (Kingston pilot host)
• Trinidad government (Port of Spain pilot)
• World Bank (technical assistance)
• Haiti (model exporter, peer mentorship)

Strategic Value

Insulates Haiti model from US political risk
Enables Caribbean-wide replication
Highest cost-effectiveness: $50M per credibility point

Problem It Solves

The US Political Risk Problem: Blueprints 4-01, 4-06, 4-08 depend heavily on US funding and political support:

• Blueprint 4-08: $100M US Congressional appropriation (30% rejection risk before mitigation)
• US State Dept drives World Bank engagement (Blueprint 4-01 Turn 22-24: "US will increase WB capital $500M if escrow approved")
• US administration change risk (2024 election → new president 2025 could withdraw support)
• Perception: "Haiti gang deals are US experiment" (not internationally legitimate model)

Blueprint 4-10 transforms perception from US unilateral to Caribbean regional:

• CARICOM vote (Sept 2024): 12-0-3 vote authorizing Gang Suppression Force demonstrates Caribbean consensus on Haiti intervention
• Jamaica + Trinidad pilots: If Haiti model works, replicate in Kingston (gang violence problem) + Port of Spain (similar gang dynamics) → "This is CARIBBEAN solution, not US imposition"
• Peer mentorship: Haitian gang leaders mentor Jamaican/Trinidadian counterparts → "We proved this works, you can too" (higher credibility than international consultants)
• US insulation: If US withdraws support 2025-2027, CARICOM can sustain Haiti model independently (reduces terminal failure risk)

Result: Haiti peace plan survives US political volatility, becomes replicable Caribbean-wide model.

How It Works

5 Implementation Phases

Phase 1: CARICOM Resolution Authorization (Months 1-3)

CARICOM Secretariat (Guyana) proposes "Caribbean Violence Reduction Framework" resolution — citing Haiti Blueprint 4-06 success as evidence. 15-member CARICOM vote: 13-0-2 (Bahamas, Barbados abstain citing budget concerns). Resolution authorizes Jamaica + Trinidad pilots.

Phase 2: Jamaica Pilot Design (Months 4-6)

Jamaica government (Kingston) identifies 3 gang leaders for pilot (Tivoli Gardens, Denham Town, Spanish Town). World Bank provides $7M technical assistance. Haitian team (Cherizier + Church mediator) travels to Jamaica for peer mentorship workshop.

Phase 3: Trinidad Pilot Design (Months 7-9)

Trinidad government (Port of Spain) replicates Jamaica model. $5M World Bank funding. 2 gang federations identified (Beetham, Laventille). Haitian peer mentorship (Wilson Joseph + BINUH monitor) provides technical transfer.

Phase 4: Pilot Implementation + Monitoring (Months 10-15)

Jamaica pilot: 3-gang coordination, $2M escrow payments, 500 jobs. Trinidad pilot: 2-gang coordination, $1.5M escrow, 300 jobs. CARICOM monitors deployed (same BINUH verification protocol as Haiti). Month 12 assessment: Jamaica 75% success (2 of 3 gangs comply), Trinidad 100% success (both gangs comply).

Phase 5: CARICOM Success Declaration + Scaling (Months 16-18)

CARICOM summit (Month 18): "Caribbean Violence Reduction Framework is PROVEN — Haiti, Jamaica, Trinidad pilots all demonstrate gang deal model viable." Resolution passed 15-0 (Bahamas + Barbados now support after pilot evidence). CARICOM requests World Bank $100M "Caribbean Violence Reduction Fund" for region-wide scaling (Guyana, Belize, Suriname potential next pilots).

Peer Mentorship Model

Haitian gang leaders + mediators provide technical transfer to Jamaica/Trinidad:

• Cherizier workshop (Jamaica Month 4): "I was skeptical World Bank would pay. They DID pay $250K. Then $6.5M capstone. Then my community got $500M reconstruction. Economic alternatives ARE real — violence is NOT solution."
• Wilson Joseph workshop (Trinidad Month 7): "400 Mawozo coordinated with Viv Ansanm rivals. Payment allocation formula was FAIR (31.67% for me, 46.67% for Cherizier based on territory size). Multi-gang coordination WORKS if payments structured correctly."
• Church mediator (both pilots): Transfers incident attribution protocol, elder verification system, accountability framework (Turn 61-66 HNP corruption precedent)

Why It Will Succeed (88% Probability)

Success Factors (Second Highest Probability)

✓
CARICOM vote already passed (Sept 2024): 12-0-3 Gang Suppression Force authorization demonstrates Caribbean political will exists
✓
Jamaica + Trinidad gang violence precedent: Kingston has 1,400 murders/year (similar scale to Port-au-Prince), domestic political pressure to find solutions
✓
Peer credibility advantage: Haitian gang leaders have "we lived this" credibility that international consultants lack (Cherizier testimony: "I was skeptical, they paid")
✓
Low budget = low risk: $20M total is 4% of Blueprint 4-08 budget ($500M), minimal financial exposure if pilots fail
✓
World Bank replication incentive: WB has institutional interest in "Violence Reduction Framework" becoming global model (justifies Haiti investment)

Cost-Effectiveness: Highest Scorecard Value (100.0)

Pass 7 Part 1 evaluation ranked Blueprint 4-10 HIGHEST across all blueprints:

• $50M per credibility point: LOWEST cost (vs. $1,250M for Blueprint 4-08)
• Strategic value maximum: Insulates Haiti from US political risk (reduces terminal failure probability 5.32% → 3.1%)
• Timeline feasibility 100%: 18 months realistic for pilot design + implementation (vs. 28 months Blueprint 4-08)
• Replication potential 95%: Jamaica + Trinidad success → Guyana, Belize, Suriname, El Salvador next (Caribbean-wide + Latin America scaling)

Key Risks & Mitigation

RISK: Jamaica or Trinidad pilot fails (gang leaders reject model, violence increases)

Mitigation: Two-pilot structure = redundancy. If Jamaica fails (25% probability), Trinidad success (88% probability) sufficient to prove model replicable. CARICOM can declare "1 of 2 success still validates Caribbean framework."

Probability: 25% Jamaica failure × 12% Trinidad failure = 3% both fail

RISK: CARICOM member states withdraw support (budget concerns, sovereignty objections)

Mitigation: World Bank funding ($20M) eliminates CARICOM budget burden. Peer mentorship (not foreign consultants) addresses sovereignty concerns. Bahamas + Barbados abstentions (Phase 1) convert to support (Phase 5) after pilot evidence demonstrated.

Probability: 10% (reduced from 25% after WB funding commitment)

RISK: Haiti model collapses before Blueprint 4-10 pilots launch (undermines credibility)

Mitigation: Q2 2026 Blueprint 4-10 launch = 12+ months AFTER Blueprint 4-06 capstone proves stable. If Haiti collapses Month 1-9 (before 4-10 launch), pilots delayed until Haiti restabilizes (not abandoned).

Probability: 5% (Blueprint 4-06 has 80% success, 20% failure × 25% irreversible collapse before Month 12 = 5%)

What Happens If This Succeeds

Caribbean Regional Model: Haiti, Jamaica, Trinidad demonstrate "Caribbean Violence Reduction Framework" is REPLICABLE (not isolated Haiti experiment). CARICOM requests World Bank $100M fund for region-wide scaling.

US Political Risk Insulation: If US administration changes 2025-2027 and withdraws Haiti support, CARICOM can sustain model independently. Jamaica + Trinidad pilots funded by World Bank (not US Congress), reduces dependency on US political stability.

International Legitimacy: Blueprint 4-08 US reconstruction benefits from "Caribbean regional consensus" narrative (not "US unilateral experiment"). Congressional appropriations hearings cite "CARICOM 15-0 support" as evidence international community backs Haiti model.

Global Scaling Potential: BINUH recommends "scale Haiti model globally" (Blueprint 4-08 Turn 87). El Salvador (gang truces 2012-2014 precedent), Colombia (FARC reintegration), Liberia (civil war DDR) request World Bank technical assistance for potential replication. Haiti becomes "CARICOM export success story."

Haitian Leadership Restored: Haiti transitions from "failed state requiring intervention" to "regional model exporter." Cherizier + Wilson Joseph recognized as "peer mentors" internationally (restores dignity, not just violence reduction).

Full Documentation

Note: Blueprint 4-10 was identified in Pass 4 opportunity analysis but not elaborated in Pass 5B (turn-by-turn detail not developed). Documentation consists of:

Documentation status: Conceptual design + actor topology + strategic value analysis (~6,000 words). Full turn-by-turn elaboration deferred to Pass 7 Part 2 (implementation sequencing).