Blueprint 4-07

72%

Success Probability

HNP Gang Integration Program

Sustainable Security — Integrating former gang members into Haiti National Police units to prevent checkpoint handover collapse and ensure long-term violence reduction.

At a Glance

Budget

$63 Million

• $45M HNP salary + benefits (1,200 officers, 28 months)
• $12M training programs (vetting, police academy, community policing)
• $6M accountability systems (elder oversight, complaint mechanisms)

Timeline

28 months

Parallel to Blueprint 4-06 Phase 6 (state transition) + 12-month extension

Key Actors

• Haiti National Police (HNP leadership)
• Gang members (1,200 integrate into HNP units)
• Community elder councils (accountability oversight)
• BINUH (training + vetting support)
• World Bank (salary disbursement via biometric system)

Scope

1,200 former gang members integrated
300,000 Port-au-Prince residents served
90%+ HNP checkpoint authority sustained

Problem It Solves

The Checkpoint Handover Paradox: Blueprint 4-06 (6-gang capstone) achieves citywide stabilization by gang leaders controlling checkpoints. Phase 6 (Turn 56-68) transitions checkpoint authority from gangs to Haiti National Police (HNP). But HNP has chronic corruption and community distrust problems:

• HNP extortion of civilians at checkpoints (historical pattern)
• Community trust in HNP: 40% (vs. 65% trust in gang checkpoints under capstone)
• HNP institutional capacity: 13,000 officers for 11.5M population (insufficient)
• Salary arrears and resource shortages drive corruption incentives

Without Blueprint 4-07: HNP assumes checkpoint control Month 12 → corruption increases → community complaints escalate → gangs re-assert control → capstone gains collapse within 6-12 months.

Blueprint 4-07 prevents this collapse by integrating 1,200 former gang members INTO HNP units — gang members become "police officers" with official salaries, training, and accountability oversight. This addresses three critical gaps:

1. Community trust: Former gang members have existing relationships with residents (familiarity reduces fear)
2. Operational control: Gang leaders retain influence through "liaison officer" roles (prevents defection)
3. Economic alternatives: $37,500/year HNP salary (vs. $8,000 gang income) incentivizes long-term compliance

How It Works

5 Integration Phases

Phase 1: Vetting & Selection (Months 1-3)

BINUH + HNP conduct security vetting of 2,000 gang member candidates. Exclusion criteria: violent felonies (murder, rape), human rights abuses, active criminal warrants. 1,200 pass vetting (60% acceptance rate).

Phase 2: Police Academy Training (Months 4-9)

6-month accelerated training program: community policing, constitutional law, non-lethal de-escalation, complaint investigation. Graduation rate: 85% (1,020 officers).

Phase 3: Checkpoint Deployment (Months 10-16)

Integrated units deployed to checkpoints (70% traditional HNP + 30% former gang members per unit). Gang leader "liaison officers" available for conflict de-escalation. Community elder councils monitor checkpoint conduct.

Phase 4: Accountability Enforcement (Months 17-22)

Elder complaint mechanism activated. Month 18 incident: HNP officer (former gang member) extorts clinic patients → elder council investigates → officer disciplined → community trust maintained at 66% (vs. 40% pre-integration baseline).

Phase 5: Sustainability Verification (Months 23-28)

BINUH Month 28 assessment: HNP corruption incidents <5/month (down from 12/month baseline), community trust sustained 66%, checkpoint authority 95% HNP-controlled. SUCCESS DECLARED — integration model validated.

Accountability Framework

Three-tier oversight system prevents corruption relapse:

Tier 1 - Community Elder Councils: 45 elders (same as Blueprint 4-06 verification) monitor checkpoint conduct, receive complaints, attest to monthly compliance
Tier 2 - BINUH Monitors: 25 BINUH officers conduct spot checks, investigate serious complaints, report to HNP Internal Affairs
Tier 3 - HNP Internal Affairs: Disciplinary actions (suspension, dismissal, criminal referral) for verified corruption cases

Why It Will Succeed (72% Probability)

Success Factors

✓
DDR precedent success: Disarmament, Demobilization, Reintegration programs have 75% success rate when combined with economic alternatives (Colombia FARC, Liberia civil war)
✓
Salary incentive strong: $37,500/year HNP salary is 4.7× gang income ($8,000/year average), powerful economic motivation to sustain compliance
✓
Community trust baseline: Former gang members have existing resident relationships (familiarity reduces fear vs. unknown traditional HNP officers from other regions)
✓
Elder accountability prevents corruption: Month 18 HNP extortion incident (Blueprint 4-06 Turn 61-66 precedent) shows elder oversight CAN enforce discipline
✓
Gang leader liaison role: Cherizier + Wilson Joseph retain influence as "conflict de-escalation advisors" (not primary authority), reduces defection risk

Critical Dependencies

• Blueprint 4-06 capstone sustains through Month 12 (provides gang member candidates for integration)
• HNP leadership accepts integration program (Pass 6 models 25% institutional resistance → mitigation: World Bank salary funding leverage)
• World Bank biometric salary system prevents payroll fraud (same system as Blueprint 4-01 Turn 17)

Key Risks & Mitigation

RISK: HNP institutional resistance (traditional officers refuse to work with former gang members)

Mitigation: Integrated units (70% traditional + 30% former gang members) prevent "gang-only" units. HNP leadership pre-commitment (Phase 1 Month 1) conditional on World Bank salary funding approval.

Probability: 25% → 10% after World Bank funding leverage

RISK: Former gang members relapse to criminal activity (corruption, extortion, violence)

Mitigation: Three-tier accountability (elders + BINUH + HNP Internal Affairs). Month 18 extortion incident shows disciplinary system WORKS — officer suspended, community trust sustained 66%.

Probability: 30% at least one incident → 8% system-wide collapse after accountability enforcement

RISK: Gang leaders withdraw support (perceive integration as "betrayal" of gang identity)

Mitigation: Gang leaders retain "liaison officer" roles (maintain influence without direct authority). Integration framed as "career advancement for your fighters" not "HNP takeover."

Probability: 15% (Cherizier + Wilson Joseph have high operational control 80%, can enforce compliance)

What Happens If This Succeeds

Checkpoint Authority Sustained: HNP maintains 95% checkpoint control through Month 28 (vs. predicted 50% collapse without Blueprint 4-07). Community trust in police increases from 40% baseline to 66%.

Blueprint 4-06 Gains Preserved: Violence reduction achieved in capstone (27 incidents/month, 22% below threshold) SUSTAINED long-term. 300,000 Port-au-Prince residents retain access to humanitarian corridors.

International Model: World Bank publishes "Gang-to-Police Integration Framework" case study. Jamaica requests technical assistance for potential replication in Kingston gangs (Blueprint 4-10 pilot component).

Blueprint 4-08 Verification Passed: US Congressional appropriations hearings cite "HNP integration success" as evidence Haiti reconstruction is sustainable. $500M reconstruction tranche disbursement APPROVED (conditional on Blueprint 4-07 Month 28 verification).

Full Documentation

Note: Blueprint 4-07 was identified in Pass 4 opportunity analysis but not elaborated in Pass 5B (turn-by-turn detail not developed). Documentation consists of:

Documentation status: Conceptual design + risk analysis (~8,000 words). Full turn-by-turn elaboration deferred to Pass 7 Part 2 (implementation sequencing).