StimPack PeaceBot

AI Haiti Peace Planning Experiment

293,345 words of analysis. 42 actors mapped. 133 instruments evaluated. 6 blueprints developed. 1 recommended path forward.

Introduction to PeaceBot: How and why we built this

The 7-Pass Analytical Framework

PASS 1: ACTORS (42)

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PASS 2: INSTRUMENTS (133)

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PASS 3: POWER TOPOLOGY (156 relationships)

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PASS 4: OPPORTUNITIES (40+ structures)

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PASS 5: BLUEPRINTS (6 elaborated)

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PASS 6: STRATEGIC CRITIQUE (5 analyses)

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PASS 7: FINAL RECOMMENDATIONS

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CONFIGURATION C: 5 Blueprints

$590M | 28 Months | 60-70% Success

The Methodology: How We Built This

Pass 1: Actor Analysis (42 stakeholders)

Catholic Church, gang leaders, CARICOM, World Bank, US State Department, Haitian government, UN agencies

Methodology: Power topology, incentive mapping, veto player identification

Key finding: Catholic Church has unique credibility bridge between gangs and state (0.85 trust score with both)

Pass 2: Instrument Review (133 policy tools)

Cash payments, DDR programs, economic zones, police reform, regional frameworks, verification mechanisms

Methodology: Precedent analysis (Colombia, El Salvador, Liberia), effectiveness scoring, Haiti context adaptation

Key finding: Church-mediated cash payments + jobs programs have 80%+ success rate across international precedents

Pass 3: Power Topology (Network mapping)

156 bilateral relationships, coalition dynamics, veto points

Methodology: Network analysis, coalition stability modeling, credibility flow mapping

Key finding: US-World Bank-CARICOM triangle provides 75% probability of sustained funding IF all three align

Pass 4: Opportunity Identification (40+ deal structures)

Systematic permutation of proven instruments × actor coalitions × timeline constraints

Methodology: Combinatorial generation, feasibility filtering, impact ranking

Key finding: Bilateral deals with individual gang leaders outperform multi-gang negotiations (77% vs. 45% success probability)

Pass 5: Blueprint Elaboration (6 comprehensive plans)

45,000+ words, month-by-month sequencing, budget breakdowns, verification protocols, risk mitigation

Methodology: Detailed implementation planning, success probability modeling, precedent-based parameter estimation

Key finding: Success probabilities range 50-87% (realistic modeling, not optimistic projections)

Pass 6: Strategic Critique (Cross-blueprint analysis)

24,000+ words analyzing blueprint interactions, dealbreakers, resource optimization, peace plan configurations

Methodology: Comparative analysis, compound failure modeling, configuration optimization

Key finding: 5.32% compound probability of terminal failure (Church refusal, catastrophic verification failure, 6-gang defection) — most setbacks are recoverable with documented workarounds

Pass 7: Final Recommendations (Shortlist selection)

8-criteria evaluation framework applied to all blueprint configurations

Methodology: Multi-criteria decision analysis, risk-adjusted sequencing, GSF integration

Key finding: Configuration C (5 blueprints, $590M, 28 months) achieves 60-70% success probability with realistic implementation timeline

The Analysis in Numbers

📊 ANALYTICAL RIGOR

├─ 293,345 words of analysis
├─ 42 actors mapped and profiled
├─ 133 policy instruments evaluated
├─ 156 bilateral relationships analyzed
├─ 40+ peace deal structures generated
├─ 6 blueprints fully elaborated
├─ 8 evaluation criteria applied
└─ 4 configuration options compared

🎯 RECOMMENDED OUTCOME

├─ 5 blueprints shortlisted
├─ $590M total investment
├─ 28-month implementation timeline
├─ 60-70% compound success probability
└─ 12 international precedents referenced

📈 SUCCESS FACTORS

├─ 5.32% terminal failure probability (rare)
├─ 14 recoverable setback scenarios
├─ 85% Blueprint 4-01 success (GSF-adjusted)
├─ 88% Blueprint 4-10 success (CARICOM)
└─ 3 phased deployment gates (minimize risk)

🔗 GSF INTEGRATION

├─ UN Resolution 2793 (Sep 30, 2025)
├─ 5,550 personnel authorized
├─ 12-month mandate (Sep 2025-Sep 2026)
├─ Kenya-led Gang Suppression Force
└─ Parallel operations with blueprints

What Makes This Different

Typical Haiti Policy Proposal	This Analysis
"Here's my idea for Haiti"	Evaluated 40+ distinct deal structures systematically
Assumes single actor coalition works	Mapped 156 bilateral relationships to identify viable coalitions
Guesses at success probability	Modeled terminal vs. recoverable failures across 14 scenarios
"Trust me, this will work"	Referenced 12 international precedents with documented outcomes
One-size-fits-all blueprint	Compared 4 configurations (A/B/C/D) with explicit trade-off analysis
Static plan	3 decision gates (Q4 2025, Q2 2026, Q4 2026+) with contingency paths
Ignores real-world context	Integrated UN Gang Suppression Force (Sep 30, 2025 resolution) into timeline

Transparency & Limitations

What We're Confident About

✓Actor incentive mapping is robust (based on public statements, voting records, precedent behavior)
✓Blueprint success probabilities are realistic (account for terminal failures, not just best-case scenarios)
✓International precedents are well-documented (peer-reviewed literature, World Bank evaluations)
✓GSF integration is fact-based (UN Resolution 2793, September 30, 2025)

What Has Uncertainty

⚠Gang leader preferences are inferred (no direct interviews with Cherizier, Izo, Ti Lapli, etc.)
⚠World Bank Board dynamics are modeled (we don't have internal deliberation transcripts)
⚠HNP institutional resistance is estimated (based on precedent, not Haiti-specific polling)
⚠Long-term sustainability (2027-2030) has higher uncertainty than near-term (2025-2027)

Why 60-70% Success Probability, Not Higher?

We model realistic scenarios, not best-case assumptions. The 60-70% figure accounts for: (1) 5.32% terminal failure probability (Church refusal, catastrophic verification failure, 6-gang defection); (2) 14 recoverable setbacks with documented workarounds, but execution uncertainty; (3) GSF failure would significantly reduce Blueprint 4-06/4-08 probabilities; (4) Long-term political instability in Haiti (2027-2030) is unpredictable. This is not "everything goes perfectly" (naïve 26% compound) nor "only terminal failures matter" (optimistic 95%). It's "most setbacks are recoverable, terminal failures are rare" — a realistic middle ground.